Dec 04, 2014

Webinar: A Probabilistic Tool to Quantify the Effects of Population Variability & Model Uncertainty

Learn about quantifying measurement errors and parameter uncertainty in musculoskeletal simulations


A recording of the event is available for viewing. You can learn more about this research at and in the following journal article:

Myers, Casey A., Laz, Peter J., Shelburne, Kevin B., Davidson, Bradley S. "A Probabilistic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Uncertainty Propagation in Musculoskeletal Simulations." Annals of Biomedical Engineering (2014): 1-14.


Title: Probabilistic Tool to Quantify the Effects of Population Variability & Model Uncertainty
Speakers: Dr. Bradley Davidson and Casey Myers, University of Denver
Time: Thursday, December 4, 2014 at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Standard Time


Uncertainty that arises from measurement error and parameter estimation can significantly affect the interpretation of musculoskeletal simulations; however, these effects are rarely addressed. The objective of this study was to develop an open-source probabilistic musculoskeletal modeling framework to assess how measurement error and parameter uncertainty propagate through a gait simulation.

In this webinar we will:

  • Introduce underlying concepts of model uncertainty probabilistic analyses within a framework of reliability analysis
  • Provide practical examples of topics that can be addressed using probabilistic analyses in OpenSim
  • Demonstrate how to perform probabilistic analyses in OpenSim using our recently developed probabilistic plugin for OpenSim

We will use two probabilistic approaches (Monte Carlo and Advanced Mean Value) to quantify confidence bounds, calculate sensitivity factors, and visualize the results at each stage of musculoskeletal analyses.

We anticipate this webinar will be helpful for:

  • Biomechanical and computational researchers interested in how model uncertainty and population based variability affects simulation outputs
  • Clinicians exploring new and innovative ways to use results from population-based analysis in their research/practice
  • OpenSim users interested in adapting the tool to model problem-specific conditions.

The model, simulation files, and code used during the webinar are provided on our Simtk project page They can be used during the webinar and later as a guide to build simulation-specific probabilistic analyses.

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